Research

Stratification Criteria for Machine Learning Pattern Discovery in Particle Physics: Preparing for the AlphaFold Moment

Andrew M. Brilliant · London Journal of Physics 3(1) · published June 2026 · arXiv:2609.06015
Published · Journal Article Open Access
Abstract. Machine learning capabilities are expanding into scientific domains at an accelerating pace. When applied to high-energy physics pattern discovery, they will generate candidates faster than traditional evaluation can absorb. ML finds patterns in past data, it is inherently post hoc. Whether those patterns reflect structure or coincidence is unknowable at discovery time; this limitation applies equally to human and computational pattern-finding. What differs is scale: ML candidate generation is effectively unbounded, while human evaluation capacity remains fixed. When generation rate exceeds evaluation bandwidth, binary accept/reject degenerates to random sampling. Information-theoretically, the only response that preserves ranking under finite evaluation budget is stratification. This paper codifies those criteria, proposing seven computationally evaluable standards for stratifying ML-generated patterns. The goal is not to deliver verdicts but to prioritize which candidates merit pre-registration and longitudinal tracking. Patterns alone, however striking, remain candidates until theoretical understanding arrives.

The story

This paper is the methodological strand of the program turned outward. The mass-relation work runs on a strict internal discipline, discovery and confirmation kept separate, null models pre-registered, hit fractions quoted against explicit priors, because a single physicist pattern-matching on PDG tables is exactly the failure mode the field worries about. Machine learning industrializes that failure mode: candidate generation becomes effectively unbounded while evaluation bandwidth stays fixed.

The argument is information-theoretic rather than alarmist. Once generation outpaces evaluation, binary accept/reject degenerates to random sampling; the only response that preserves ranking under a finite budget is stratification. The paper proposes seven computationally evaluable criteria, rules that can be adjusted retroactively and thresholds that can be tuned as results accumulate, so that ML-generated candidates can be prioritized for pre-registration and longitudinal tracking rather than prematurely accepted or discarded.

The goal is infrastructure built before it is urgently needed: validation criteria for an AlphaFold-scale event in particle physics, offered as a provisional framework for community calibration.

Status

How to cite

Brilliant, A. M. (2026). Stratification Criteria for Machine Learning Pattern Discovery in Particle Physics: Preparing for the AlphaFold Moment. London Journal of Physics, 3(1). https://doi.org/10.69710/ljp.v3i1.17825 · arXiv:2609.06015